(1) пруфлинк на доказательства того, что полтора месяца торможения полностью погубили экономику?

(2) пруфлинк на ввод налогов?

(3) это такой же прогноз, такой же степени достоверности, как и моделирование эпидемии.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51706225

The IMF described the decline as the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Although it said that the coronavirus has plunged the world into a "crisis like no other", it does expect global growth to rise to 5.8% next year if the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020.

сам источник

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/

и главное из него

Flattening the spread of COVID-19 using lockdowns allows health systems to cope with the disease, which then permits a resumption of economic activity. In this sense, there is no trade-off between saving lives and saving livelihoods. Countries should continue to spend generously on their health systems, perform widespread testing, and refrain from trade restrictions on medical supplies. A global effort must ensure that when therapies and vaccines are developed both rich and poor nations alike have immediate access.