я не специалист ни разу, но мне по- профессии стоит читать медицинскую литературу и очень хочется хоть какого-то прогноза этого кризиса.

поэтому тоже пытаюсь разобраться.

. Pathogens with higher R0 require a higher herd immunity level. The threshold herd immunity level can be calculated by 1 - 1/R0. For example, a disease with R0 of 2 will need a herd immunity level at 1 - 1/2 or 50% of the population, whereas a disease with R0 of 10 will need a herd immunity level of 1 - 1/10 or 90%. Theoretically, in a homogenous population with sufficient and evenly distributed contact rate, herd immunity level will be reached regardless of R0. Although a virus with higher R0 requires a higher herd immunity level, it can spread more rapidly resulting in a higher number of infected cases, and the required herd immunity level will be eventually reached. In reality where populations are heterogeneous, the threshold herd immunity level may never be reached. Contact rate does not distribute evenly in a population and can vary demographically and geographically. A realistic population consists of multiples compartments interacting with one another at various contact rates.

дальше читать здесь:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3782273/