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Коронавирус. Памятка
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in Antwort max22222 31.03.20 09:11, Zuletzt geändert 31.03.20 09:41 (vitminc)
Это сколько, в среднем, человек заразиться от одного больного или что-то еще?
Сегодня вирус распостраняется со скоростью удвоения инфицированных в 5,2 дней. Торможение означает, что эта скорость снизится в случае например ношения маски в 3 раза до 15,6 дней.
Ниже развитие ситуации в различных случаях. В качестве начальной даты взято вчера с гарантированно известными 66 000 случаями (лучший случай). Расчет на основе формулы, что я давал раньше до примерно 50% заражения населения. Последняя колонка показывает случай, когда в Германии вообще нет больных и есть только ежедневный импорт в 10 человек, которых не отследили. Там не учитываются цепочки распостранения, но это не суть важно для понимания смысла.
| Doubling time | Doubling time | Doubling time | Doubling time | Doubling time | Doubling time | |
| 5,2 | 10,4 | 15,6 | 31,2 | 23,4 | 5,2 | |
| Date | No action | No contacts | Masks | No contacts + Mask | Mask + Tests | Zero case |
| 30.03.2020 | 66.000 | 66.000 | 66.000 | 66.000 | 66.000 | - |
| 31.03.2020 | 75.421 | 70.559 | 69.009 | 67.493 | 67.994 | 10 |
| 01.04.2020 | 86.185 | 75.432 | 72.154 | 69.019 | 70.049 | 21 |
| 02.04.2020 | 98.484 | 80.640 | 75.442 | 70.579 | 72.164 | 34 |
| 03.04.2020 | 112.537 | 86.208 | 78.880 | 72.175 | 74.344 | 49 |
| 04.04.2020 | 128.594 | 92.160 | 82.474 | 73.806 | 76.589 | 66 |
| 05.04.2020 | 146.940 | 98.521 | 86.231 | 75.474 | 78.902 | 86 |
| 06.04.2020 | 167.902 | 105.321 | 90.159 | 77.180 | 81.284 | 108 |
| 07.04.2020 | 191.853 | 112.590 | 94.265 | 78.924 | 83.738 | 134 |
| 08.04.2020 | 219.220 | 120.360 | 98.558 | 80.707 | 86.265 | 163 |
| 09.04.2020 | 250.488 | 128.665 | 103.046 | 82.530 | 88.869 | 196 |
| 10.04.2020 | 286.215 | 137.542 | 107.738 | 84.394 | 91.551 | 234 |
| 11.04.2020 | 327.037 | 147.032 | 112.643 | 86.300 | 94.313 | 277 |
| 12.04.2020 | 373.679 | 157.175 | 117.771 | 88.248 | 97.159 | 327 |
| 13.04.2020 | 426.972 | 168.018 | 123.132 | 90.241 | 100.090 | 383 |
| 14.04.2020 | 487.864 | 179.608 | 128.736 | 92.278 | 103.109 | 448 |
| 15.04.2020 | 557.438 | 191.996 | 134.595 | 94.361 | 106.219 | 522 |
| 16.04.2020 | 636.933 | 205.239 | 140.720 | 96.491 | 109.422 | 606 |
| 17.04.2020 | 727.763 | 219.394 | 147.124 | 98.669 | 112.722 | 702 |
| 18.04.2020 | 831.545 | 234.524 | 153.818 | 100.895 | 116.121 | 813 |
| 19.04.2020 | 950.125 | 250.698 | 160.817 | 103.172 | 119.622 | 938 |
| 20.04.2020 | 1.085.613 | 267.986 | 168.134 | 105.500 | 123.229 | 1.082 |
| 21.04.2020 | 1.240.421 | 286.465 | 175.783 | 107.880 | 126.943 | 1.247 |
| 22.04.2020 | 1.417.302 | 306.218 | 183.779 | 110.313 | 130.770 | 1.434 |
| 23.04.2020 | 1.619.405 | 327.333 | 192.139 | 112.801 | 134.712 | 1.649 |
| 24.04.2020 | 1.850.326 | 349.903 | 200.879 | 115.345 | 138.772 | 1.894 |
| 25.04.2020 | 2.114.174 | 374.028 | 210.016 | 117.947 | 142.954 | 2.174 |
| 26.04.2020 | 2.415.644 | 399.816 | 219.568 | 120.606 | 147.262 | 2.494 |
| 27.04.2020 | 2.760.100 | 427.381 | 229.553 | 123.326 | 151.699 | 2.860 |
| 28.04.2020 | 3.153.673 | 456.847 | 239.993 | 126.106 | 156.270 | 3.277 |
| 29.04.2020 | 3.603.365 | 488.342 | 250.907 | 128.949 | 160.978 | 3.755 |
| 30.04.2020 | 4.117.178 | 522.009 | 262.317 | 131.856 | 165.828 | 4.300 |
| 01.05.2020 | 4.704.256 | 557.996 | 274.245 | 134.828 | 170.823 | 4.923 |
| 02.05.2020 | 5.375.046 | 596.463 | 286.715 | 137.867 | 175.969 | 5.635 |
| 03.05.2020 | 6.141.483 | 637.581 | 299.752 | 140.974 | 181.270 | 6.449 |
| 04.05.2020 | 7.017.207 | 681.533 | 313.381 | 144.151 | 186.729 | 7.378 |
| 05.05.2020 | 8.017.799 | 728.514 | 327.629 | 147.399 | 192.353 | 8.441 |
| 06.05.2020 | 9.161.067 | 778.733 | 342.525 | 150.721 | 198.146 | 9.654 |
| 07.05.2020 | 10.467.352 | 832.414 | 358.097 | 154.117 | 204.114 | 11.041 |
| 08.05.2020 | 11.959.901 | 889.794 | 374.377 | 157.589 | 210.260 | 12.625 |
| 09.05.2020 | 13.665.272 | 951.128 | 391.397 | 161.139 | 216.592 | 14.435 |
| 10.05.2020 | 15.613.812 | 1.016.690 | 409.190 | 164.769 | 223.114 | 16.503 |
| 11.05.2020 | 17.840.194 | 1.086.770 | 427.791 | 168.481 | 229.831 | 18.867 |
| 12.05.2020 | 20.384.036 | 1.161.680 | 447.238 | 172.276 | 236.751 | 21.567 |
| 13.05.2020 | 23.290.604 | 1.241.753 | 467.568 | 176.156 | 243.879 | 24.652 |
| 14.05.2020 | 26.611.619 | 1.327.345 | 488.821 | 180.123 | 251.221 | 28.177 |
| 15.05.2020 | 30.406.177 | 1.418.836 | 511.041 | 184.179 | 258.784 | 32.205 |
| 16.05.2020 | 34.741.801 | 1.516.632 | 534.269 | 188.327 | 266.574 | 36.807 |
| 17.05.2020 | 39.695.641 | 1.621.168 | 558.554 | 192.568 | 274.599 | 42.066 |
| 18.05.2020 | 1.732.909 | 583.941 | 196.904 | 282.865 | 48.074 | |
| 19.05.2020 | 1.852.351 | 610.482 | 201.337 | 291.379 | 54.938 | |
| 20.05.2020 | 1.980.025 | 638.229 | 205.870 | 300.149 | 62.782 | |
| 21.05.2020 | 2.116.498 | 667.237 | 210.505 | 309.183 | 71.744 | |
| 22.05.2020 | 2.262.377 | 697.562 | 215.244 | 318.489 | 81.984 | |
| 23.05.2020 | 2.418.310 | 729.266 | 220.089 | 328.074 | 93.684 | |
| 24.05.2020 | 2.584.990 | 762.409 | 225.044 | 337.947 | 107.053 | |
| 25.05.2020 | 2.763.157 | 797.059 | 230.109 | 348.118 | 122.327 | |
| 26.05.2020 | 2.953.604 | 833.283 | 235.289 | 358.594 | 139.780 | |
| 27.05.2020 | 3.157.176 | 871.153 | 240.584 | 369.385 | 159.721 | |
| 28.05.2020 | 3.374.779 | 910.743 | 245.999 | 380.500 | 182.506 | |
| 29.05.2020 | 3.607.378 | 952.132 | 251.535 | 391.950 | 208.539 | |
| 30.05.2020 | 3.856.009 | 995.401 | 257.196 | 403.744 | 238.285 | |
| 31.05.2020 | 4.121.775 | 1.040.637 | 262.984 | 415.892 | 272.272 | |
| 01.06.2020 | 4.405.857 | 1.087.928 | 268.902 | 428.406 | 311.105 | |
| 02.06.2020 | 4.709.519 | 1.137.367 | 274.953 | 441.296 | 355.476 | |
| 03.06.2020 | 5.034.109 | 1.189.053 | 281.140 | 454.573 | 406.173 | |
| 04.06.2020 | 5.381.070 | 1.243.087 | 287.465 | 468.250 | 464.099 | |
| 05.06.2020 | 5.751.943 | 1.299.575 | 293.933 | 482.338 | 530.285 | |
| 06.06.2020 | 6.148.376 | 1.358.631 | 300.546 | 496.849 | 605.908 | |
| 07.06.2020 | 6.572.132 | 1.420.370 | 307.308 | 511.797 | 692.315 | |
| 08.06.2020 | 7.025.094 | 1.484.913 | 314.222 | 527.194 | 791.042 | |
| 09.06.2020 | 7.509.273 | 1.552.389 | 321.291 | 543.054 | 903.847 | |
| 10.06.2020 | 8.026.822 | 1.622.931 | 328.518 | 559.391 | 1.032.736 | |
| 11.06.2020 | 8.580.040 | 1.696.678 | 335.909 | 576.218 | 1.180.004 | |
| 12.06.2020 | 9.171.386 | 1.773.776 | 343.465 | 593.552 | 1.348.270 | |
| 13.06.2020 | 9.803.488 | 1.854.376 | 351.191 | 611.407 | 1.540.530 | |
| 14.06.2020 | 10.479.154 | 1.938.639 | 359.090 | 629.799 | 1.760.204 | |
| 15.06.2020 | 11.201.387 | 2.026.730 | 367.167 | 648.744 | 2.011.202 | |
| 16.06.2020 | 11.973.396 | 2.118.823 | 375.425 | 668.258 | 2.297.989 | |
| 17.06.2020 | 12.798.612 | 2.215.101 | 383.869 | 688.359 | 2.625.669 | |
| 18.06.2020 | 13.680.702 | 2.315.752 | 392.503 | 709.065 | 3.000.073 | |
| 19.06.2020 | 14.623.586 | 2.420.977 | 401.330 | 730.392 | 3.427.863 | |
| 20.06.2020 | 15.631.453 | 2.530.983 | 410.356 | 752.362 | 3.916.651 | |
| 21.06.2020 | 16.708.782 | 2.645.987 | 419.585 | 774.991 | 4.475.136 | |
| 22.06.2020 | 17.860.361 | 2.766.215 | 429.021 | 798.301 | 5.113.255 | |
| 23.06.2020 | 19.091.307 | 2.891.907 | 438.669 | 822.312 | 5.842.364 | |
| 24.06.2020 | 20.407.089 | 3.023.309 | 448.533 | 847.044 | 6.675.436 | |
| 25.06.2020 | 21.813.555 | 3.160.681 | 458.619 | 872.521 | 7.627.296 | |
| 26.06.2020 | 23.316.955 | 3.304.295 | 468.932 | 898.763 | 8.714.882 | |
| 27.06.2020 | 24.923.969 | 3.454.434 | 479.477 | 925.794 | 9.957.546 | |
| 28.06.2020 | 26.641.738 | 3.611.394 | 490.258 | 953.638 | 11.377.401 | |
| 29.06.2020 | 28.477.896 | 3.775.485 | 501.282 | 982.318 | 12.999.714 | |
| 30.06.2020 | 30.440.602 | 3.947.032 | 512.553 | 1.011.862 | 14.853.352 | |
| 01.07.2020 | 32.538.577 | 4.126.374 | 524.077 | 1.042.293 | 16.971.300 | |
| 02.07.2020 | 34.781.145 | 4.313.863 | 535.861 | 1.073.639 | 19.391.246 | |
| 03.07.2020 | 37.178.271 | 4.509.871 | 547.909 | 1.105.928 | 22.156.252 | |
| 04.07.2020 | 39.740.606 | 4.714.784 | 560.227 | 1.139.187 | 25.315.520 | |
| 05.07.2020 | 4.929.008 | 572.823 | 1.173.447 | 28.925.268 | ||
| 06.07.2020 | 5.152.964 | 585.701 | 1.208.736 | 33.049.729 | ||
| 07.07.2020 | 5.387.096 | 598.869 | 1.245.087 | 37.762.297 | ||
| 08.07.2020 | 5.631.866 | 612.333 | 1.282.530 | 43.146.829 | ||
| 09.07.2020 | 5.887.756 | 626.099 | 1.321.099 | |||
| 10.07.2020 | 6.155.273 | 640.174 | 1.360.827 | |||
| 11.07.2020 | 6.434.944 | 654.565 | 1.401.750 | |||
| 12.07.2020 | 6.727.322 | 669.280 | 1.443.904 | |||
| 13.07.2020 | 7.032.984 | 684.325 | 1.487.324 | |||
| 14.07.2020 | 7.352.534 | 699.708 | 1.532.050 | |||
| 15.07.2020 | 7.686.602 | 715.437 | 1.578.121 | |||
| 16.07.2020 | 8.035.848 | 731.520 | 1.625.577 | |||
| 17.07.2020 | 8.400.963 | 747.963 | 1.674.459 | |||
| 18.07.2020 | 8.782.665 | 764.776 | 1.724.812 | |||
| 19.07.2020 | 9.181.711 | 781.967 | 1.776.678 | |||
| 20.07.2020 | 9.598.886 | 799.543 | 1.830.103 | |||
| 21.07.2020 | 10.035.016 | 817.515 | 1.885.135 | |||
| 22.07.2020 | 10.490.961 | 835.890 | 1.941.821 | |||
| 23.07.2020 | 10.967.622 | 854.678 | 2.000.211 | |||
| 24.07.2020 | 11.465.940 | 873.889 | 2.060.357 | |||
| 25.07.2020 | 11.986.898 | 893.531 | 2.122.311 | |||
| 26.07.2020 | 12.531.526 | 913.614 | 2.186.128 | |||
| 27.07.2020 | 13.100.898 | 934.148 | 2.251.863 | |||
| 28.07.2020 | 13.696.140 | 955.143 | 2.319.575 | |||
| 29.07.2020 | 14.318.426 | 976.610 | 2.389.322 | |||
| 30.07.2020 | 14.968.986 | 998.560 | 2.461.167 | |||
| 31.07.2020 | 15.649.103 | 1.021.002 | 2.535.171 |
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