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Экономическое развитие стран из бСССР.
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в ответ kurban04 19.04.07 21:39
Все таки я настоятельно рекомендую к прочтению:
The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy
http://www.bof.fi/NR/rdonlyres/E7B80101-DA1B-4698-8DC4-6F05330D2F41/0/dp0302.pdf
.....
The sustainability of the Russian economy is somewhat vague. The main determinants are oil price, real exchange rates and investments. Rautava (2002) comes to a conclusion that not only do oil prices and real exchange rates continue to play a significant role in Russian economy, but that their effects may be greater than generally acknowledged. Rautava calculates that a 10% permanent increase (decrease) in the price of oil causes the GDP level to increase (decrease) by 2,2% and a 10 % appreciation (depreciation) in the real exchange rate leads to a 2,4% decrease (increase) in the long-run level of GDP.
The role of oil prices and the real exchange rate in Russia's economy
http://www.bof.fi/NR/rdonlyres/E7B80101-DA1B-4698-8DC4-6F05330D2F41/0/dp0302.pdf
.....
The sustainability of the Russian economy is somewhat vague. The main determinants are oil price, real exchange rates and investments. Rautava (2002) comes to a conclusion that not only do oil prices and real exchange rates continue to play a significant role in Russian economy, but that their effects may be greater than generally acknowledged. Rautava calculates that a 10% permanent increase (decrease) in the price of oil causes the GDP level to increase (decrease) by 2,2% and a 10 % appreciation (depreciation) in the real exchange rate leads to a 2,4% decrease (increase) in the long-run level of GDP.