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17.08.07 11:47
in Antwort Tomasson 08.08.07 18:11
NEW 17.08.07 11:52
in Antwort Tomasson 08.08.07 18:11
NEW 17.08.07 13:09
in Antwort John Lee 17.08.07 11:52
почитайте, забавная история и весьма актуальная на сегодня (кто думает, что не понимает, включете переводчика):
Over the last 2 weeks I have traded like a maniac. I have had 5-figure P&L swings intra-day and I must have lost a stone in sweat, and a couple of tears as well. I did the total P&L this morning which showed an increase of 62% of my account in 10 trading days. Around the same time I did this inventory I had a couple of open positions in the FTSE and DAX which was about the break-even level. This all happened early this morning. As chance would have it, I received an email from a gentleman called John Piper. I don't really know John very well, but I kind of like his style. I would love to say it is like mine, but it isn't. John is modest for starters, and a genuinely thorough guy. His email was a sales pitch for his newsletter, which contained a current analysis of the market. What I paid attention to and what this story is all about, was contained within the email as John broke down the components of each wave on the SP500 chart and the psychological impact of each. He wrote that in this particular wave (Elliot wave theory) you should be acutely aware of CAPITAL PRESERVATION.
This struck a cord with me an hour later when I looked at a particular stock which has dropped 70% in 3 days. It is one of the hot stocks of the world, and many of the big funds and very wealthy individuals have been on board this stock for a while and made HUGE paper gains. Now the stock is on the rocks, and I have seen some individuals being exposed to losses in the tens of millions of pounds.
I spoke a to a friend of mine who is a risk manager. He told me how from a competition point of view he had been forced to lower the criterias for the sake of being competitive against competing companies from a margin and leverage point of view. As a result of it he was not able to recover assets from the individuals (even after taking into account their houses, their boats and planes etc). He told me the real reason was not sub-prime mortgages, but LEVERAGE.
The whole world is leveraged. My friend was around for the oil crisis in 1974, the crash of 1987, the crisis of 1998 and now this. He says the story is the same now as it was back then, but there is one distinct difference. This time the leverage is there to a much larger degree than it ever was before, at any crisis. Back then most people owned the assets. Now they don't.
I reminded me of the RICH MANs panic in 1907. People will be quick to point out the 100 year cycle and they are right. History is repeating itself. My reason for writing this is mostly for myself. I have earned a lot of money over the last two weeks doing what I do best - trading the charts. However, everyone can become complacent, and it looks like the complacency is catching up with the majority. I am writing this because I think you should be aware of possibility of much more downside. You know the Matrix is calling for more downside over the next several months. If you are interested in more specific dates, you should take out a subscription and check it out for yourself. Either way, we will have a strong bounce at some point shortly, but this looks like it has much further to go, and the final words of my risk manager friend, as I left his office was "there will be a lot of hurt going on now, and the predators knows it, and continue to force these stocks lower to inflict more pain... It will be interesting to see who is left standing once this is over"....
I walked back to my desk and closed some more doubtful positions and reminded myself not to be too cute in these markets. Last night the FTSE was called to open up 120 points, and the Dax was to open up 160. Now DAX is down 25 and the FTSE is down 10. Thanks John. Your email came just in time.
Over the last 2 weeks I have traded like a maniac. I have had 5-figure P&L swings intra-day and I must have lost a stone in sweat, and a couple of tears as well. I did the total P&L this morning which showed an increase of 62% of my account in 10 trading days. Around the same time I did this inventory I had a couple of open positions in the FTSE and DAX which was about the break-even level. This all happened early this morning. As chance would have it, I received an email from a gentleman called John Piper. I don't really know John very well, but I kind of like his style. I would love to say it is like mine, but it isn't. John is modest for starters, and a genuinely thorough guy. His email was a sales pitch for his newsletter, which contained a current analysis of the market. What I paid attention to and what this story is all about, was contained within the email as John broke down the components of each wave on the SP500 chart and the psychological impact of each. He wrote that in this particular wave (Elliot wave theory) you should be acutely aware of CAPITAL PRESERVATION.
This struck a cord with me an hour later when I looked at a particular stock which has dropped 70% in 3 days. It is one of the hot stocks of the world, and many of the big funds and very wealthy individuals have been on board this stock for a while and made HUGE paper gains. Now the stock is on the rocks, and I have seen some individuals being exposed to losses in the tens of millions of pounds.
I spoke a to a friend of mine who is a risk manager. He told me how from a competition point of view he had been forced to lower the criterias for the sake of being competitive against competing companies from a margin and leverage point of view. As a result of it he was not able to recover assets from the individuals (even after taking into account their houses, their boats and planes etc). He told me the real reason was not sub-prime mortgages, but LEVERAGE.
The whole world is leveraged. My friend was around for the oil crisis in 1974, the crash of 1987, the crisis of 1998 and now this. He says the story is the same now as it was back then, but there is one distinct difference. This time the leverage is there to a much larger degree than it ever was before, at any crisis. Back then most people owned the assets. Now they don't.
I reminded me of the RICH MANs panic in 1907. People will be quick to point out the 100 year cycle and they are right. History is repeating itself. My reason for writing this is mostly for myself. I have earned a lot of money over the last two weeks doing what I do best - trading the charts. However, everyone can become complacent, and it looks like the complacency is catching up with the majority. I am writing this because I think you should be aware of possibility of much more downside. You know the Matrix is calling for more downside over the next several months. If you are interested in more specific dates, you should take out a subscription and check it out for yourself. Either way, we will have a strong bounce at some point shortly, but this looks like it has much further to go, and the final words of my risk manager friend, as I left his office was "there will be a lot of hurt going on now, and the predators knows it, and continue to force these stocks lower to inflict more pain... It will be interesting to see who is left standing once this is over"....
I walked back to my desk and closed some more doubtful positions and reminded myself not to be too cute in these markets. Last night the FTSE was called to open up 120 points, and the Dax was to open up 160. Now DAX is down 25 and the FTSE is down 10. Thanks John. Your email came just in time.
17.08.07 23:30
in Antwort John Lee 17.08.07 13:09
NEW 18.08.07 13:29
in Antwort 4atlanin 17.08.07 23:30
NEW 18.08.07 20:51
in Antwort John Lee 17.08.07 11:52, Zuletzt geändert 18.08.07 21:24 (blackalex)